INTRODUCTION
Today, political uncertainty bedevils the landlocked Andean country of Bolivia. Fragile relations between the ruling party of Evo Morales and the opposition have escalated in recent weeks. The lowland provinces of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, and Tarija, successfully held a referendum that demanded more autonomy and control of their natural resources. This move provoked the ire of the president who vowed territorial integrity and sovereignty above regional interests. Hugo Siles Alvarado, Bolivian Ambassador to the UN, echoed this sentiment in an interview with the writer. His grave concern for the fragmentation of his nation was almost palatable. On the question of the possible 'Balkanization' of Bolivia, he stated: "We should note that the people in these renegade provinces were always antagonistic to the indigenous Quechan speaking people of the Highlands. And as you know Evo Morales has indigenous roots. So there is also a racial component to this struggle. But let me make this clear, our Government is willing to sit and talk with the opposition parties but not one inch of our country will be compromised." (Interview filed for the Diplomatic Monitor, February 26, 2008).
To understand this precarious political climate, one must review the history that Bolivia shares with other countries throughout Latin America and the Caribbean.
THE LEGACY OF AN UNJUST PAST
The face of Latin America is a derivative of colonialism and its legacy of familial ties, exploitation and systemic racism. The imposition of a pervasive value system that denigrated the traditional practices of the underclass (indigenous peoples) contributed to a region with an uneducated and underdeveloped human resource The Quechua, the Runasimi and the Yanomani speaking peoples primarily in Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela were victims of this entrenched system.
In the introduction of his report on the Political Economy of Latin America, Franceso Rodriguez (2007) outlined the dismal economic performance of the region over the past decades: "Latin America's experience with economic growth has been a disappointing one. Despite having similar levels of per capital GDP than British colonies in the Western Hemisphere at the beginning of the 19Th century and attaining independence roughly the same time, Latin America and the Caribbean fell rapidly behind the US and Canada in terms of economic performance." Here a myriad of factors are citable, including the suppression of human resources through exclusionary practices in the legislative, political and economic sectors.
Contemporary Bolivia is a reflection of a society in transition. Efforts by the Morales government to amend the constitution in order to redress historical wrongs have been vigorously lauded by the Quechuan speaking populace whose numbers hover over 50% of the population. This internal struggle can be viewed through the prism of Marxian philosophy. The Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 Russia galvanized and empowered the working peoples to form trade unions. Class struggles have and continue to characterize the social and economic milieu of Latin America.
But behind the veneer of class struggle is the pathological side of racial and religious identity. Unquestionably, any examination of Latin American society cannot marginalize the impact of race relations. Bolivia, a society bereft of social homogeneity has its historical antecedent in the encomienda system and the plantation model, both of which were defined by color, race, ethnicity and religion. The advent of the industrial revolution, urbanization, and the influx of transnational companies did little to assuage the adverse effects of history. "Bolivia at one time was the main source of silver for the European powers and the United States. Tin production was also high, but was monopolized by four families. During the land reform and nationalism drives in the 1950s, tin production and exports declined because its markets intentionally dried up." (Hugo Siles Alvarado, Bolivian Ambassador to UN, interview with the Diplomatic Monitor, February 26, 2008).
The present impasse between the governors of Bolivia's four provinces portends a potentially bloody confrontation between the indigenous supporters of Morales and small but powerful European elite. Here, their political showdown is underscored by marked cultural and racial differences. The fault line theory of conflicts more than any other, details the undercurrents of this struggle. The fault line war concept is primarily used to describe ethnic clashes between groups within a sovereign boundary. The confrontation is embedded in the supposed superiority of one group over the other, culminating with a campaign of extermination. Although such bloody conflicts are precipitated by political marginalization and economic strangulation of one ethnic group, they usually end with deliberate efforts at physical and cultural extermination.
One characteristic of the fault line theory of understanding conflicts is the near impossibility of reaching a resolution. Of this, Professor Samuel Huntington (1997) of East Harvard University states: "Fault line wars go through processes of intensification, expansion, containment, and rarely resolution. Identities which had previously been multiplied and causal become focused and hardened. As violence increases, the initial issues at stake tend to get redefined more exclusively as us against them and group cohesion and commitment are enhanced."
Such is the situation in Bolivia where the battle lines are drawn between the opposition controlled provinces and those of the Morales administration. Bolivia's denouement is shaped by internal, regional, and even global dynamics. As such, any prognostication is all but debatable. One can only surmise on the outcome of this impasse.
SOCIALISM'S NEW FACE
The acrid internal politics of Bolivia must not be assessed within an insular framework. The emergence and politicization of the once marginalized Quechuan speaking peoples is symptomatic of a regional, if not a global trend. From the advent of the Cold War to its last gasp, Latin America was a 'proxied' battleground. Ideological campaigns, foreign interventions, and home grown insurrections bloodied its political landscape leaving tens of thousands dead and missing. For example, the rural area in Guatemala was Latin America's Dresden. During the government campaign, dubbed 'scorched earth' that targeted indigenous peoples rebelling against the tiny European minority, some 400 villages were obliterated and over 1 million refugees poured into Mexico. Government forces also steamrolled its way through Indian villages in neighboring countries.
Today the purveyors of naked capitalism are bristled by the winds of socialism that continues to blow across Latin America. Chile, Brazil, Paraguay, Guatemala have all undergone a seismic shift in governmental rule over the last decade. Once defined by its right wing military leaders, the Latin America electorate has voted for change in the most transparent of manner. Indeed the end of the Cold War marked the relative normalization of civil and political life. Further the intolerance for despotic rule must be attributed to an emerging global conscience and sensitivity.
Increased accessibility due to revolutionary technology like the Internet has made it difficult for the likes of Somoza and Pinochet to govern with gross violation to the rule of law. Further, autocratic leaders can no longer use the shield of immunity to nullify attempts at prosecution. Domestic courts are now willing to adjudicate international cases where human rights violations have occurred. Global judgment is handed down against the most prodigious of powers. This has served to mollify the most intemperate and undemocratic political indulgences that, in the past have beleaguered efforts at transforming Latin America.
CONSTRUCTIVISM AND LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMY
Arguably, an ethnic conflagration in Bolivia is unlikely. This is due to political and other institutional reforms that have occurred throughout the region. Clearly, external determinants have influenced national and regional policies. One case in point is the perceived threat of globalization and free trade. The formation of the Caribbean Single Market and Economy (CSME) is one attempt by small Caribbean Islands to strengthen their economic viability in a competitive world. MERCUSOR, which is comprised of Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile and Brazil; and the Community of The Andes embrace like objectives.
But it is ALBA, acronym for the Bolivarian Alternative for Latin America that has gained notoriety due to its politically fueled agenda. The proponents of ALBA have advanced a mode of trade negotiations that is based on parity and cognizance of the strengths and weaknesses of member states. Recognizing that their economies are unable to absorb goods from larger 'partners', they have adopted the watchwords, 'mutual understanding'. The ultimate goal expressed by some leaders is the eradication of poverty through sustainable development.
This constructivist method of governance must not be viewed solely from an economic perspective. These organizations have help forged a spirit of regional, cultural and political identity. That Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is enjoying an unprecedented fiscal bonanza from record oil prices, have only solidified the regional posturing of an emerging Latin America. The natural gas Fields of Bolivia, the crude oil production of Ecuador and the recent discovery of one of the largest repository of crude oil off the coast of Brazil, have raised the strategic stakes of the region. Adopting the constructivist model is a propitious move as the turn of the century marked the reconfiguration of strategic global alliances.
In 2006 at the World Economic Forum in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Luiz Fernando Furlan of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade announced Brazil's intention of becoming a major player in the development of bio-fuels. Argentina also cited his country's venture in compressed natural gas as an automobile fuel export.
Of equal importance is the social impact of such economic developments. The equitable distribution of wealth will assuage discontent and offer more opportunities for the disenfranchised. Governments will also have the required resources to implement social policies hitherto unrealizable.
Controversy and the threat of secession that bedevil Bolivia will dissipate for two reasons. Firstly, Morales' effort to amend the constitution resonates throughout Latin America where most socialist governments have undertaken similar actions. And in the vein of classical realism, Morales has promised a strong response by the state if its sovereignty is compromised. In other words, any action by Morales will evoke robust support in the diplomatic and economic sphere, by its many neighbors that share like ideals.
Finally, the recent military flare-up between Colombia and Ecuador, though reminiscent of the Cold War, and indicative of a politically fragile region, tested the region's spirit of communalism. In an interview with the Diplomatic Reporter, (March 2008, Vol.5), Consul General of Ecuador in New York, Juan Lopez accused outside powers of deliberately attempting to destabilize his country and the region. He stated: "We have never lectured to the Colombia government on its incompetence in handling this war. President Uribe (of Colombia) is not being forthright in this matter and I think his actions are meant to fragment the area." Despite this strident response, and Venezuela's saber rattling, an explosive situation was expeditiously resolved through diplomatic channels - testament to the region's growing maturity and its willingness to address differences within the parameters of political civility.
And this augurs well for the potentially incendiary scenario that now threatens Bolivia.
CONCLUSION
F.A. Hayek once wrote that "some paradox of our nations leads us, when once we have made our fellow man the objects of our enlightened interest, go on to make them the object of our pity, then our wisdom and ultimately our coercion."
The crucible like struggles of ideological battles that have in the past occupied the Psyche of Latin American scholars and politicians underscores Hayek's aphorism.
As such, the region and its people must be watchful that populism of any persuasion, and the present determination to correct historical wrongs and capitalist excesses do not create an over-reaching of the economic pendulum.
Indeed, the outlook for Latin America is cautiously positive. There is a sense of regional and economic integration which serve to temper internal strife. Programs of nationalization and the formation of regional institutions have placed Latin America in a more influential position.
The economic viability of the region will continue to be shaped by internal and global factors. There must be a vision to embark on an economic model that is diversified. The economic strength of countries may very lie in the development of the agro-industry and not solely on oil and natural gas. But the ability to translate fortuitous social, political, and economic alignments and initiatives into tangible gains is ultimately contingent on the willingness of the people of Latin America to place nation before special interests.
REFERENCES:
Benjamin, Medea (2008). "ALBA, An Economic Alternative for Latin America.'
Chong, Albert (2007). "Discrimination in Latin America: An Elephant in a Room?" Inter-American Development Working Papers 1073
Colburn, Forrest D (2002). "Latin America at the End of Politics." Princeton University Press.
Powers, Bill (2004) "Venezuela: Circling The Drain
http:www/financialsense.com/editorial/powers/2004/0503.html.
